Rollins hits the DL

The calf injury that Jimmy Rollins sustained in the warmups prior to Monday’s home opener has turned out to be a strain of a severity somewhere between grades 1 and 2. Courtesy of the WORLD OF SPORTS SCIENCE (I love that name), here is what that means:

A second degree strain is a moderate overstretching and tear of the muscle fibers. In addition to RICE treatments, anti-inflammatory medications are often prescribed.

RICE, by the way, stands for “Rest, Ice, Compression, Elevation.” No off-day Dance Dance Revolution for J-Roll. Ruben Amaro said he is “hopeful” for a 2 to 4 week recovery time, although Rollins could be out up to 6 weeks if rehabilitation does not go according to plan. This makes Juan Castro the new everyday shortstop until Rollins returns. To back him up, the Phillies added Wilson Valdez to the 40 man and active roster. Valdez hit .256/.326/.337 in 95 plate appearances with the Mets last year, and, in a dubious small sample, has a 15.6 UZR/150 at shortstop, so there’s a chance he’s quite a good defender. The DL trip for Rollins also effectively hands the leadoff spot in the lineup to Shane Victorino.

Phils sign Schneider, bench begins to take shape

The Phillies have agreed to, pending physical, a 2 year, $2.75 million contract in which he will make $1.25 million in 2010 and $1.5 million in 2011. In 2009, Schneider managed only a .218/.292/.335 line with 3 home runs in 194 plate appearances. It was a down year in the luck department, though, as he saw his BABIP dip to .228, down from a career average of .278. When that regresses, we can hopefully expect him to post something closer to his 2008 performance – .257/.339/.367. When Driveline Mechanics attempted to construct a combined statistic for assessing catcher value (combining pitch blocking, steal attempts, throwing errors, and fielding errors), they found Schneider to be the 12th most valuable among major league backstops. All in all, a pretty standard signing for the backup catcher spot. Certainly an improvement over both Paul Bako and Paul Hoover. A one year deal certainly would have been preferable, but at $1.5 million in 2011 it’s not exactly going to cripple the team if Schneider falls off a cliff.

Meanwhile, as I mentioned in my previous post, the Phillies signed DeWayne Wise and Wilson Valdez to minor league contracts. Both are options worth exploring. You probably know DeWayne Wise as the savior of Mark Buehrle’s perfect game last year, making a brilliant leaping catch off the wall in the 9th to prevent a home run. That’s sort of the whole story on him. He’s quite good defensively – 11.7 career UZR/150 in the outfield – but has no bat. In 153 plate appearances in 2009, he “hit” .225/.262/.366. He will likely spend 2009 in AAA trying to figure out how to get on base, and get a September call up for some defensive depth on the bench. Wilson Valdez is probably the guy that should’ve gotten Juan Castro’s contract. He’s been very good at shortstop in his career, compiling a 15.6 career UZR/150 (although the sample size is not quite where it should be for UZR to be totally reliable). Last year at the plate he managed a .256/.326/.337 line. Yes, that is an OBP over .300. Why can’t he be our backup middle infielder?

One last thing to keep your eye on: the Tigers declined to offer arbitration to Placido Polanco. This probably makes him more appealing to the Phillies, who now would not have to give the Tigers a first round draft pick as compensation for losing a Type A free agent were they to sign him. I’m personally hoping that Rube doesn’t jump at the opportunity; as I said in my offseason priorities post, Beltre is the best bang for the Phillies’ dollar, an elite defender, and DeRosa and Polanco, while an upgrade over Feliz, won’t provide a whole lot of value. Check back at the end of the day when the Phillies finalize their list of players to offer arbitration. Jayson Stark believes the Phillies will not offer arbitration to either Chan Ho Park or Scott Eyre.

Good News and Bad News

Bad news first: The Phillies and utility middle infielder Juan Castro have agreed to a deal, pending a physical. The deal is reported to be worth less than $1 million. Todd Zolecki simply labeled him “Bruntlett’s replacement,” and, frankly, he’s a little too Bruntlett-y for me. Castro’s career line is .230/.270/.332. In 15 MLB seasons, he has never posted an OPS+ higher than 84 (remember, 100 is league average). He has had an OBP over .300 only twice. One of those seasons has a 5 plate appearance sample size, and the other was 2009, a career year for Castro, in which he posted a .277/.311/.339 line with one home run. Yes, I said career year. Ruben Amaro no doubt hopes Castro will repeat that production in 2010, on the cheap. What Amaro may not have noticed is that Castro’s 2009 came with a .345 BABIP, a full 80 points above his career average. His line drive percentage was significantly higher than in previous seasons, so some of that is attributable to simply hitting the ball harder, but it would be ridiculous to expect him to get that lucky again. He’s going to regress.

There’s also a deeper front office philosophy at work here, the same philosophy that resulted in Eric Bruntlett. It’s the notion that it does not matter in the slightest how bad your backup middle infielder’s bat is, because he is primarily a defensive replacement. I don’t have a problem with defense-oriented bench players, but if you’re a front office, you do need to make sure that their defense actually makes up for their total lack of offensive contribution. Castro has been good at second and short throughout his career – UZRs of 13.5 and 6.1, respectively. If you look at the last three years, there are some indications that his defense is declining with age, but the sample sizes are not high enough for UZR to be reliable. I can tell you this: If Castro’s offense makes the expected regression in 2010, and his fielding remains about the same or he loses a step to old age, he will not be above replacement level. Don’t think that his status as a defensive replacement will prevent him from getting enough plate appearances to bottom out his value either. He will certainly be used to give Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley days off, and will see pinch hit opportunities when Charlie’s options are limited. Just ask Eric Bruntlett, who saw the plate 118 times in 2009 and 238 times in 2008.

Player	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS+
Alex Cora	.251	.320	.310	69
Craig Counsell	.285	.357	.408	105
Jerry Hairston Jr.	.251	.315	.394	86
Nick Green	.236	.303	.366	71
Mark Loretta	.232	.309	.276	60
Juan Uribe	.289	.329	.495	111
Adam Everett	.238	.288	.325	59
Chris Gomez	.273	.322	.333	76
John McDonald	.258	.271	.384	72

There are more middle infielder free agents that could be signed relatively cheaply. In fact, here is a chart full of them. These players all made $2 million or less in 2009. Yes, some of them would want raises in 2010. And yes, some of them have simply average or even below average defense. But most have some competence at the plate. Some of them can even post an OBP over .300! (Did I mention that Castro has done that only twice? I’m pretty sure I did.) For most of them, when you combine their bat and their glove, you will find they are more valuable than Juan Castro. And that is the point – you don’t need to forget about any kind of offensive ability and find an elite defender for your backup middle infielder. You just need to be sure that the combined value of his offense and defense is worth more than replacement level. I suspect this will not be the case for Juan Castro, but for Ruben’s sake and ours, let’s hope that it is.

The Good News

Word comes via MLB Trade Rumors that the Phillies are indeed going after Adrian Beltre to fill the third base position. As I wrote in my offseason priorities post, Beltre is probably the best third base option for the Phils. He is possibly the best defensive third basemen in the game, and his offense is likely to be rebound from an injury-hampered 2009. He is a clear upgrade over Pedro Feliz, and could be had for a reasonable salary. It would behoove Rube not to be shy in doling out a significant amount of those newly-minted Citizens Bank Park greenbacks to get him; he is a wise investment.

Also, as I am writing this, news has arrived that Phillies have signed Wilson Valdez and DeWayne Wise. The 2010 bench is taking shape. I’ll post some thoughts on that later.